Oorsig

  • Die bedoeling met hierdie aanbieding is om gedagtes te prikkel oor ons toekomstige plek in die land en die land se plek in die wêreld
  • Vrye vloei van idees werk goed maar daar is perke…

Die parameters

Scenarios I

  • Scenarios is ‘n tegniek of benadering om te dink oor, en te beplan vir, alternatiewe toekomstige gebeure.
  • Scenarios is nie voorspellings nie – dit is onmoontlik om die toekoms met sekerheid te voorspel.

Scenarios II

  • ‘n Goeie scenario vra die hoorder om haar twyfel vir ‘n oomblik opsy te skuif om die impak van die storie te waardeer.
  • ‘n Scenario is effektief wanneer iemand wat dink oor ‘n taboe of ‘n skynbaar onmoontlike gebeurtenis, kan sê:
    • ¡“Ja. Ek sien hoe dit kan gebeur – en wat ek as gevolg daarvan mag doen.”

Ons eie gedagtes oor die toekoms…

  • As ons ‘n scenario oefening sou doen dan kan ons so begin:
  • Identifiseer die fokus:
    • ’n stabiele en welvarende nasie in 2020’
  • Watter faktore in ons onmiddelike omgewing het ‘n impak op ons fokus?
  • Watter dryfkragte in die wyer omgewing beïnvloed hierdie faktore?

Suid Afrika

  • Heelwat scenarios is al ontwikkel wat alternatiewe moontlike gebeure vir die land identifiseer.
  • Clem Sunter is bekend vir sy ‘high road / low road’ scenarios.  Daar is verskeie ander.
  • Ek wil fokus op ‘n onlangse een:
  • “MEMORIES OF THE FUTURE” – SOUTH AFRICA SCENARIOS 2014

Memories of the future

  • * ‘S’gudi S’nais’ is gebaseer op die aanname dat Suid Afrika in ‘n akkommoderende wêreld bestaan, maar nie voordeel daaruit trek nie.
  •  *’Dulisanang’ skets ‘n toekoms in die konteks van ‘n vyandige, eensydige wêreld, onvriendelik teenoor ontwikkelende lande, waar Suid Afrikaners nogtans ‘n inklusiewe gemeenskap skep.
  • * ‘Skedonk’ is ‘n kombinasie van ‘n onvriendelike internasionale gemeenskap en interne verdeeldheid en pessimisme.
  • * ‘Shosholoza’ is gebaseer op die aanname van ‘n akkommoderende wêreld en inklusiewe Suid Afrikaanse gemeenskap.

S’gudi S’nais

  • ‘S’gudi S’nais’ is characterised by conflicts between those who have-a-lot versus those who have-a-little.
  • Although the world has taken heed of ‘the fire next time’ warnings from the developing world, and multilateralism now prevails, South Africa loses its place in the jostle for investment and access to international trade.
  • Growth is initially high but perversely so, surging to 6-8%, but later dropping to an average of less than 1% per annum by the decade’s end as the impact of social fragmentation takes effect.
  • This is a result in the main of situation in which the rich elect to ignore social inequalities and concentrate on selfish and often unethical amassing of wealth, and the state is indecisive in containing this.

Dulisanang

  • ‘Dulisanang’ describes a much more considerate and inclusive society.
  • South Africa has responded to heightened global insecurity and endemic economic crisis by turning inwards to its own resources.
  • Although growth is low, participation in the economy is high and compassionate values emerge strongly.
  • And, despite limited resources, the state delivers on its social obligations but is unable to sustain such social delivery in the long-term due to low growth.

Skedonk

  • ‘Skedonk’ is characterised by deep social divisions.
  • Unilateralism in global relations is the order of the day, and the globe is beset with conflicts.
  • Growth in South Africa is confined to areas like tourism and is stubbornly low all decade.
  • The poor get poorer, AIDS has had devastating effects on the population, and, by decade’s end, there is high unemployment and general social dislocation within South Africa.
  • In this instance, the political and economic leadership would have responded to the unfavourable global climate by ‘waiting for Godot’ – through inaction.

Shosholoza

  • ‘Shosholoza’ envisages South Africa, by the end of the Second Decade of Freedom, as a diverse and tolerant society whose local economy is surging ahead like a sleek express train.
  • The global economy is also booming, and multilateral institutions have brought stability to the world’s most intractable political conflicts.
  • High economic growth has brought millions of jobs and much greater participation in the robust economy.
  • South Africa is well poised for a third decade of freedom, and opportunity and prosperity.

Zimbabwe?

  • In 1993 skryf Pat McGowan dat SA oor die langtermyn afdraande loop…
  • …en teen 2013 soos Zimbabwe gaan lyk.
  • Wat hy bedoel het is dat die SA ekonomie nie internasionaal kompeterend gaan bly nie en dus in relatiewe terme soos ‘n onder-ontwikkelende ekonomie gaan presteer
  • Positiewe kenmerke: kultuur, regionale stabiliteit, politieke demokratisering, industriële basis
  • Negatief:ekonomiese groeikoers en handel, skoling en opleiding, produktiwiteit, die staat en wet en orde, openbare finansies

Maar nou?

  • 1993
  • Demokrasie
  • Kultuur
  • Die ekonomie
  • Skoling en opleiding
  • Die staat & wet en orde
  • Die streek
  • Die wêreld-ekonomie

Laastens…

  • Ons hoef nie ander se kriteria onkrities oor te neem nie…
  • Ons kan self die kernfaktore en drywers van ons toekoms identifiseer…
  • Om sodoende ‘n reeks alternatiewe toekomstige gebeure te skets
  • En, krities, besluit wat ons daaromtrent gaan doen (of wat die land daaromtrent moet doen)
  • Kan ons ons eie toekoms skep?